経営コンサル日誌

NISHIコンサル日誌のバックナンバーブログです。

日記

これが「専門バカになるプロセス」。

投稿日:

こんにちは。NISHIです。

?専門バカ?になると真実が見えなくなる。

記事は経済や歴史の話ですが、
経営コンサルティングにおいても
このタイトル通りのことが
全く同じように当てはまります。

http://grass-ex.jp/Lo30/13631


このテーマで経済学が
取り上げられていることが
個人的には結構面白くて、

経済学者の予測って
見事外すことも多いですよね。

で、その問題点に関しては
この個所に端的に表れている
ように思います。

==

経済学者もそうです。

たとえば2014年に
消費税率が引き上げられたとき、

「1997年の増税が失敗だったから、
今回も失敗する」

と反対する経済学者がけっこういました。

しかしこれは、正確な比較ではない。
1997年と2014年とでは、
経済状況がまったく違いますから。

==

ここです。
おわかりになります??

専門家が専門バカになる。
その一番の原因は

パターン思考にハマりすぎる
————————————-

ことです。

先ほどの引用個所を
例に挙げますと、

・「増税」を
1997年と2004年で「比較」し、
・「1997年=失敗」のため、
・「ゆえに2004年も失敗」と結論

と、まぁ対談で例として
挙げているわけですから、
行間を思いっきり端折って
いるのは確かですが、
それを差し引いても、

【前例】を引き合いに出し、
【前提の違い】を確認せず、
【等式で結び付ける自動思考】を
することがいかに多いかが
非常によくわかる例です。


コンサルタントも同じで、
いや、特にコンサルタントは、
業種なりテーマなりの
専門コンサルタントになればなる程、
この【悪癖】が出やすいことは確か。

それには理由があるんです。

少し抽象度の高い例を出して
それを説明してみますね。

たとえば、
「飲食業のInstagram集客」を
専門にするコンサルタントが
いたとしましょう。
あくまで例えです。

彼(彼女でもいいですがひとまず彼)の
【勝ちパターン】は当然、
【Instagramでの集客】ですよね。
彼の最も強力で唯一の武器ですから。
(便宜上、唯一としておきましょう)

しかし、
同じ飲食業でも業態や店舗によっては
【前提が違う】わけです。

目的を「集客」で考えると、
どうしもWEB系のツールが
苦手な人っていますし、

Instagramの使い方を嫌々覚えて、
その人が使えるようになるまでに
相当の時間がかかるくらいなら、

サッサと既存客にDMやハガキを
出した方が集客に結び付くことも
往々にしてあります。

この場合、この飲食店にとっては
InstagramよりDMやハガキの方が
正解というわけです。

これが
「前提が変われば正解は変わる」
ということであり、

・前提が変わっているのに
・その事実に気づくことなく、
・同じ方法を採用していること

が、【専門バカ】の危険性なわけです。

ただ、これも仕方ないといえば
仕方のない側面があります。

業種特化であれ、
テーマ特化であれ、
その組み合わせであればなおのこと、

勝利の方程式は絞られやすい
————————————–

わけです。

この業種では
このやり方がうまくいった、から、

このテーマでは
このやり方がうまくいった、から、

同じ思考回路になりがちなのです。
A→B、A=Bになりやすいのです。

そうやって
「パターンに頼った思考」により、
「思考のショートカット」をすることで、
案件を数多くこなせるからです。
そして、その方が金になります。
だから、そこにハマるのです。

結果、前提の違うことを忘れる。

いかに自分の思考、認知に、
フィルターがかかっているか。
適宜その点検をしなければ、
【痛い経済学者】と同じになります。

そういうコンサルタントが
多いことも確かですが。

では。

NISHI

-日記

執筆者:


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