経営コンサル日誌

NISHIコンサル日誌のバックナンバーブログです。

日記

フレームワークは無謀を挑戦に変える。

投稿日:

こんにちは。NISHIです。

あんまり追跡調査はしていませんが、
こういう業態の賞味期限って一体、
どれくらいなんでしょうね?

http://grass-ex.jp/Lo30/12701

ま、「静かな」ブームということは
さほど流行っていないことも十分
予測される事態ですが、
急に売れる、流行るよりよほどマシ
ではあります。

なぜなら、
急に流行ったものは急に廃れるから。
これは世の常です。
スキルもノウハウも全く一緒。

もちろん、
急に売れる、流行るのも悪いことでは
決してありません。
狙いによりますからね。


さて、昨日のお話では、

「商売でたとえ少なくない額の
投資を行う際ですら、
 リサーチが片手落ちの場合も
 意外と多い」

といったことをお伝えしたかと
思います。

「そんなこと、
 するわけないでしょう?」

と、
半ば都市伝説と言いますか、
信じられない思考や行動を、
時に人はとるものです。
自分のことになればなるほど、
人は盲目になりますからね。

たとえばですね、
さっきの「業態」でもそうです。

業態とは基本的に、
商売の形態や売り方のことです。

こと、店舗形態での商売では、

「目新しいことを始める
 ≒新しい業態をつくる」

といった構図になりやすい
ものですが、
こういう、いわゆる新規業態は、
アイデアも実態も浮かんでは
消えていく…を繰り返します。
栄枯盛衰が早いから、
それなりに高リスクではある。

もちろん、
それなりに高リスクとはいえ、
チャレンジしないことには
何も生まれません。

ただ、
チャレンジと無謀は似て非なるもの。
新しいチャレンジは必要ですが、
無謀にならないよう、最低限の
検証や確認作業は必要です。

この
「新規業態を思いついた時」って、
たいていの人が

「これは当たる!」

と、思って始めますよね?

ま、その自信の「程度」が
そこそこなのか過剰なのか、
そのあたりの違いはあれど、
見込なく始める人はいないわけ。

ただ、その見込が
【最初から外れている】ことも
なかにはあるわけで、

であれば、
最初から自らそこに突っ込むのは
ただの自爆行為。

その自爆行為を避けるために、
分析のフレームワークが
あったりするわけです。

大事なのでこのくだりは何度も
お伝えしていますが、今日、
1つ追加するフレームワークは

マーケットサイズ
———————

という考え方。

これは、
「“その商品”における
 国民1人あたりの年間消費金額」
という意味を表します。

たとえば、とある商品における
国民全体での「総支出金額」が
1億円だとします。

で、計算が面倒なので
日本国民の人口を1億人としましょう。

と、なりますと、
国民1人あたりの年間消費金額である
マーケットサイズ(MS)は、

MS=1億円/1億人=1円

となります。

これで何がわかるかというと、
【商圏内】におけるその商品や業態の

市場規模
———–

がわかるわけです。
マーケットサイズに人口をかければ
市場規模がわかる。

つまり、
その商品や業態の需要が「目安として」
どれくらいのあるのかがわかる。

需要は多いのか小さいのか、
市場は大きいのか小さいのか。
その辺がわかるわけです。

と、なりますとその商品や業態が
ニッチになればなるほど、
目新しいものになればなるほど、

マーケットサイズは【小さ】く、
商圏人口を【必要とする】のです。

わかりますよね?

目新しいからこそ、
物珍しいからこそ、
それにひっかかるアンテナを
持っている人は少なくなる。

と、なりますと、
目新しい、物珍しい商品や業態が
ヒットするには、
それなりの人口ボリュームが必要に
なってくるわけです。

故に、
都心部にはニッチな商品や業態が
成立しているケースが多いですから、
一見、先端なような気がします。

もちろん、その側面もありますが、
単に商圏人口が多いから、という
側面もあるのは確か。

自分が思いついたアイデアに
酔っちゃうと、
ついmこの単純な事実を見逃して
しまうケースがあるんですよね。

わざわざ、
勝てない場所を選んでしまう。
わざわざ、
日の目を見ない場所を選んでしまう。

当然、商売やビジネスの目的や
目標によりますけどね。
ただ、最初から負け戦を選ぶ人、
意外と多いと思いますよ。

では。

NISHI

-日記

執筆者:


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