経営コンサル日誌

NISHIコンサル日誌のバックナンバーブログです。

日記

「勝手にデューデリ」をやってみる。

投稿日:

こんにちは。NISHIです。

ここまで悪質だと、
普通は一発でアウトのような
気がしますが…。
そうならないのはきっと、
色々とご事情がおありなのでしょう。

http://grass-ex.jp/Lo30/11651

こちらの記事を見ていると、
今ひとつ結論がわかりかねますが、
ちょっとそれは脇に置きましょう。

このメルマガは、
・学習意欲旺盛なビジネスマン、
・コンサル志望の方、
・コンサル始めたての方
が読者の中心層ですので、
それに即した話をしましょう。


この記事の中の単語で、
このようなものがあります。

デューデリジェンス。
———————–

通称デューデリと言いますが、
この言葉、ご存知です?

デューデリとは、

==
投資を行う際に、
本当にその投資対象に
十分な価値があるのか、
またリスクはどうなのかを
詳細に調査する作業
==

と、iFinance金融情報サイトさんに
掲載されている定義を拝借。

そうです。まさに、この通り。

実はこのデューデリなるもの、
私も数回経験がありまして、
私の場合は大して複雑なものじゃ
ありませんでした。

ま、一口にデューデリといっても
その複雑さや難易度、作業量においては
千差万別のように思います。

とはいえ、目的は同じで、
「投資に見合う価値があるか?」
を判断するためのものです。

なんていったって、
投資ですからリターンが必要。
具体的業績アップ策や
コスト低減策をセットにし、
その実現妥当性があるかどうか。

本来そこを、

よくよく精査
—————

しなければならないものです。
ですから私だってとても慎重。
シミュレーションは繰り返します。
「これだな」って思えるまで、です。

で、見てください。この記事。

==
今般のCB&Iの買収は
当初のれんが100億程度と
考えていたのが、突如として
全体で7000億円を超える
減損損失が出るなど、
その買収案件の
デューデリジェンスを含めた
リスクファクターの認識の甘さ自体が、
十分内部管理体制の不備とも言える
==

…………
………
……

うーーーむ、。。。
どうやったらここまで
膨れ上がるのでしょう…。
細目は存じ上げませんが、
ザルすぎやしませんかね??

ま、その甘さはともかく、
・学習意欲旺盛なビジネスマン、
・コンサル志望の方、
・コンサル始めたての方
のみなさまに対してお伝えしたいのは、

妄想レベルでもいいので、
デューデリをシミュレーションすること、
その後の経過観察をすることは、
非常によいケーススタディになる。

そう思います。

もちろん、デューデリなんて
経験がなければイメージしにくいのは確か。

でも、思い出してください。

デューデリとは極端な言い方をすると、
「投資するに妥当かどうかを見極める作業」
でしかありません。

企業の現状はどうか?=現状分析
市場の概況はどうか?=市場分析
どうすれば業績は上がるか?=業績アップ策
どうすればコストは下がる?=コスト低減策
それで利益は出るようになる?=収益化対策

などなど、これらはほんの一部ですが、
コンサルに必要な思考力を試す、
よい材料でありケーススタディなるかと。

そのためには、
こんな風に妄想することも必要ですが、

その後、
何をして、どうなったかを
経過観察してみる。
自分の見立てと照合してみる。

そういった確認作業をすれば、
あなたの疑似体験は血肉になります。

では。

NISHI

-日記

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