経営コンサル日誌

NISHIコンサル日誌のバックナンバーブログです。

日記

統計を使わずに市場規模を算出する方法。

投稿日:

こんにちは。NISHIです。

前職時代、とある先輩に

「国の統計って
ホンマやと思ってる?」

と聞かれ、
素直に「ハイ」と答えていた
ウブな1年生がいましたが、
統計が正確なことはないものの、
おおよそは合っていてほしいもの。

なので、こんな改ざんは
マジで勘弁してほしいす。

http://grass-ex.jp/Lo30/11101

今日は「統計」や「データ」の
読み方に関するお話ですね。


さて、
さきほどお伝えしたように、
統計っておおよそはアテになるものの、
それが真実とは言い切れませんよね。

母数の多少、
統計の取り方、
範囲の切り取り方、
仮説の立て方、
グラフの見せ方…

などなど、
見せようによっては
何とでも見せることは
可能と言えば可能です。

だからこそ、
読み手のリテラシーが
しっかりしていないと
相手の思うツボになるだけなので、

「統計を鵜呑みにしない」

と同時に

「自分は思った以上に
 統計を読み取れていないだろうし、
 読み取る力もまだまだなのかも」

くらいに思っておいた方が
ちょうどよいかもしれません。

では、統計をより正確に読み取るには
どうしたらよいのでしょうか?

それにはいくつかありますが、
ここでは「統計以外のアプローチ」から
そのあたりを探ってみたいと思います。


これ、先輩から聞いた話ですが、
その昔「とある商品の市場規模」を
算出する案件が
プロジェクトの一部にあったんですね。

その「とある商品」とは、「線香」。

今となってはそんな統計も
あるのかもしれませんが、
当時はそんな統計、
どこにもなかったんですよね。

で、どうしたか?

ヒアリング。です。
—————

誰に?

主要メーカーやお寺に、です。
————————-

メーカーの生産量や、
線香の消費量の多いお寺での
年間購入量や消費量などを
ヒアリングしていったわけです。

もちろん、
お答えいただけるところもあれば、
そうでないところもあります。

ですから、
拾えた情報からつなぎあわせ、
推論を重ねていくわけ。

年間の生産量や消費量から
市場流通量を推測したり
予測シェアから逆算したりする。

そんなことを繰り返していくと、
いくら情報量が少ないモノでも、
「使えないほどでもない」程度には
数字が出揃ってきます。

結果、出てきた市場規模に関しては
こちら側もクライアント側も

「割としっくりくる」

という調査結果に着地できました。

市場規模を調べるなんて、
職業的に当てはまる方は
少ないかもしれません。

ですが、
市場に出回るデータに使われずに
使いこなす上でも、

肌感覚を信じる。
肌感覚の確かな人の意見を信じる。
足を使って確かめる。
現場で得た実感を数字と照らし合わせる。

そんなことを意識すると
仕事力は一歩も二歩も上がりますね。

では。

NISHI

-日記

執筆者:


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  80. I would argue that away from the pitch, she is actually less foxy. What makes her “foxy” is her athleticism, her physicality, and her leadership, all of which were transformed on DWTS into timidity, ideological gracefulness, and obedience to her male partner. On DWTS, she’s just another women fully made-up with a plunging neckline for us to gawk at.

  81. Hey! I recommend you check out the free 30 Day Challenge on HASfit’s website. It includes a workout schedule and diet plan. Losing only 2lbs per week you should get there by the end of the program. You can do it!Coach Kozak“Like” us @ Facebook .com/hasfitness for the best? workout motivation!

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  84. Every once in a while we do things, but they are mostly at night. So we do dinner and a movie at the most. Need to think about more things during the day. Great list.

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  87. Dosas are supposed to be sour – they’re fermented. They’re actually pretty easy to make and naturally gluten free since the batter is made of raw, soaked, fermented lentils and white rice. Let me know if you want a recipe!

  88. I think a chest X-ray is def in order! I hate to say this, but you should probably skip this 5k . That’s my nursing advice for the day. I certainly don’t want to spill my wine, so I guess jogging is out for me Where did your mom go? We have a Morris Farm Market right down the street! It’s not like Morris is a common name or anything…lolGet well soon!

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  90. To lose weight most effectively you have to understand your own basal metabolic rate, carb / protein ratio, bf % and metabolic age. The Diet is more important than getting exercise.

  91. Betty,I am so sorry to hear about the death of your sister Judy. You are in my thoughts and prayers. May your strength prevail to help you through this difficult time. Remember too, that Death leaves a heartache no one can heal, love leaves a memory no one can steal. Glenda Rowland

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  93. Oh cool!!! I got Volumes 1-5 (+the Christmas DVD) for my kiddos last year for Christmas, best gift ever. I had no idea there were more volumes out yet, thanks for the heads up!!! I highly reccomend these discs to everyone and can’t wait to buy the new discs.

  94. Chinmaya God forgives before the comments are even made!And whats so bad about people saying whats on their mind?Its not heresy you know !Osho would grin, he may even agree to a point, he would certainly tell a joke!Chetna asks if Osho was so enlightened why are so many sanyassins screwed up? Thats a fair question.Someone may ask that question without risking the wrath of God!!Chetna its cos’ he accepted all and everyone who asked to take sannyas, no questions asked, no bill of mental health required!Love

  95. 6 septembrie 2012Se pare ca multi romani vor unirea cu noi. Eu care eram putin cam… disperat, si credeam ca romanii nu ne vor pe noi, basarabenii.Unire, fratilor!  

  96. Förmåner & rabatter | Fors Golf I was suggested this blog by my cousin. I am not sure whether this post is written by him as nobody else know such detailed about my trouble. You are wonderful! Thanks! your article about Förmåner & rabatter | Fors Golf Best Regards Veronica Craig

  97. Ja, det gör det för mig också, pendlar alltså. Men då mellan Här-fick-jag-till-det-minsann och Var-jag-full-när-jag-skrev-det-här-eller-bara-allmänt-hjärndöd :-).Fast det som är bra är ju att allt är så enkelt att rätta till i datorn. Tänk de som skrev när det bara fanns skrivmaskiner. Vilket hästjobb att ändra då.

  98. Boy Harley really missed the boat when they scrapped Buell and just when Buell was dumping the boat anchor Harley motor for the modern Rotax V twin. Harley is stuck in there outlaw image. Harley wants to sell a bike and then all the Harley crap to go with it. Every Harley rider wares Harley undies, Harley belt buckle etc. Buell riders didn’t sucker for that crap. Younger buyers did not want to go into a Harley dealership either. Man, Harley really sucks big time…..

  99. Utente Anonimo15/09/2009Annamaria, spegnere “questa” tv aiuta di sicuro. Sto diffondendo questo appello e chiedo di fare altrettanto, anche via sms: Martedì sera dalle 21 alle 23 spegni “Porta a porta” ed accendi una candela per la libertà ed il pluralismo dell’informazione. PASSAPAROLA AGLI AMICI! Aldo M.

  100.   Espenhehe.. “gossine” er faktisk ogsÃ¥ i mitt vokabular, men det order har jeg virkelig ikke brukt pÃ¥ mange mange Ã¥r. Hadde nesten helt glemt ordet. Heldigvis har jeg bare møtt ekorn, dÃ¥dyr, hund, veps og humle hittill.

  101. I sat down to add that verse last night, got up to grab my Bible to read that chapter and got VERTIGO! Hit almost instantly. Sat with my head straight and still, eyes closed, for 90 MINUTES and finally could see well enough to post it. How weird is that. I haven’t had an episode in three years… Better today, thanks again. ; )

  102. I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own weblog and was wondering what all is needed to get setup? I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very web savvy so I’m not 100% positive. Any tips or advice would be greatly appreciated. Cheers

  103. WidzÄ™ to patrzÄ…c przez tochÄ™ inne okulary 🙂 MiaÅ‚am na myÅ›li waleczność trochÄ™ takÄ… jak w koÅ„cówce listu Å›w. PawÅ‚a do Efezjan (PaweÅ‚ byÅ‚ bardzo waleczny, tylko trochÄ™ inaczej przed upadkiem z konia, a trochÄ™ inaczej po tym upadku). W szkieÅ‚kach “moich okularów” bardzo walecznym papieżem byÅ‚ np. JPII – choć może nie jest to specjalnie oryginalne spostrzeżenie.

  104. Ohhh hätte ich deinen Post mal nicht gelesen. Jetzt bin ich doch auch am Ãœberlegen ob ich mir so ein Ding bestelle …Weiß jemand ob man auf dem Kindle nur die Bücher von Amazon lesen kann??? Oder kann ich die ebooks die ich zB. bei Bol.de gekauft habe auch darauf laden?Ich habe keine Ahnung!!!Lg Lena

  105. Too bad that too many restaurant owners continue to think that tiny bits of overpriced food in big plates is fine dining. Paul Bocuse was already démodé in 1990.

  106. Take action now against Sri Lanka. We have never seen this before in the world. This kind of brutual killing of Tamils. Give a solution for this. Please internation committee take action immediatly.

  107. Takk for at du står på.Det ligger an til at Venstre kommer på vippen etter valget, og det vil gi innflytelse. Oljealderen går nå mot slutten og Norge må handle mens det ennå er tid.

  108. Hauskaa, tässä taas nähdään, miten samat kirjat jakavat mielipiteitä. Ja miksi ihmeessä Hesarissa tuomittiin kirjablogien henkilökohtaisuus, nämä omakohtaiset näkemykset ja kokemukset ovat mielenkiintoisia! Myönnän, että printti-Hesarin arviossa voisin kummastella suorasukaista arviota "vihasin syvästi ensimmäiset 300 sivua":)Canalia on kyllä joskus kokeiltava, ihan tämän keskustelun perusteella. Ja mitä Rikokseen ja rangaistukseen tulee, minusta se oli tosi mielenkiintoinen ja ihan vei mukanaan, olin vaikuttunut. Ei tuu silti satikutia, vaikka muut olisivat eri mieltä. 😉

  109. One of the most problematic thgnis is to find a weblog with unique and fresh content but im sure you offer something distinct. Ensure that it stays this way. My spouse and i also have a journal that we write just about every day on. I like it!Carry on the good work.

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  111. Hej Elisabeth ! Har inte varit inne på din blogg på över en vecka,kom hem några dagar för tidigt beroende på att jag inte mår bra.Har inte läst allt som skrivits ,men ser att du hänger med i samma anda, med familj,vännerna,du starka kvinna.Hoppas du får vara med oss länge än.Timmen är sen kunde inte sova.Ha de gott.Kramiz från Gull i Skåne.

  112. Sorry Brandon. We wish you had as well. But, there’s a good likelihood you’ll need tires in the future for the XLR so definitely keep theses recommendations in mind.

  113. Én is szemeztem a késekkel, jelenleg egy igazán jól vágó késem van otthon, de a 25 és 80 pont, mire elérnénk, bÅ‘ven vége az akciónak 🙁 így azt hiszem a meglévÅ‘ pontokból beváltunk 10-et gyerek étkészletre :-)Max, édesapán picit nedves cserépen, jól lemosott virágcserép, szokta fenni a késeket, szuperül és sokat tart.

  114. I thought most of the changes that removed discriminating against same sex couples were driven by money – a couple for example receives less in social security and other entitlements than two individuals in many cases.Rudd on the left? Surely you jest.I am trapped in a nightmare. Limp lettuce and Labor is about all I can see at the moment. I will wake in fright soon.

  115. Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a few unrelated data, nevertheless really worth taking a look, whoa did one learn about Mid East has got more problerms as well

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  118. Pyöritelläänpä vielä numeroita. Jos ikäryhmässä 5-19 vuotiaat joka kolmas olisi sairastanut sikainfluenssan, se olisi merkinnyt yli kuuttakymmentä kuolonuhria 0.02%:n kuolleisuudella – vrt. nyt ilmitulleeseen 52:een narkolepsiatapaukseen.Esimerkiksi 50-luvun "aasialaiseen" sairastui juuri tuo kolmasosa väestöstä.

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  121. Very good article. Also the anon who wrote about politcal correctness is right on. It kind of reminds me of a concentration camp–nothing makes sense and you can't plan anything to survive, its all random.

  122. SÃ¥ utrolig fint det ble, Heidi:)Og sÃ¥ bra at du fikk mannen pÃ¥ gli, haha;)Hvilken farge har dere brukt pÃ¥ veggen…? Fabrikk??Og hurra for mamma selvfølgelig:)NÃ¥ skal jeg til byen Ã¥ kjøpe rosa stoff, det er nemlig eijente pÃ¥ 2 Ã¥r som skal fÃ¥ bursdagskrone;)God klem fra meg

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  124. André,Na conversa que tive com a Daphne Savoy, da CET, na CBN, em momento algum se admitiu a possibilidade de se cancelar a ciclofaixa. Os 15 dias citados na entrevista seriam para avaliar a implantação e realizar mudanças em alguns pontos específicos, se necessário. Talvez haja revisão no estacionamento na Zona Azul ao lado da ciclofaixa. “A ciclofaixa é uma conquista de todos”, disse a gerente da CET.

  125. sama mba Nony hati-hati juga pada penipuan dengan kedok menjual hp BM murah ,Namanya SANDY MURHAKIM , rek MANDIRI : 9000007977805nmr hp nya : 085322223444 & 085327774457sudah banyak korbannya … kalo bisa No. Rekeningnya dibekukan atau di Blokir dan sa’at orangnya datang ke Bank langsung aja diproses atau ditangkap..

  126. Ola, acho que mesmo pagando os U$100,00 de taxa de excesso de bagagem compensa fazer enxoval nos EUA.As coisas são muitoooo baratas mesmo.Nao fiz meu enxoval lá, mas fui para lá qdo meu bebe tinha 7 meses e comparei os preços… quase enlouqueci… comprei muitas coisas….o proximo enxoval com certeza sera feito fora, fica mais barato fazer forta mesmo!

  127. I like only one flavor of cold coffee – The one which comes with more chocolate than coffee. Maybe I need to try making coffee/tea at home? I will try sometime… I am getting cold coffee next to my house in CCD! Why would I travel to Mumbai for that? Destination Infinity

  128. Wow…what an inspiration…and she reminds me of a quote that I keep going back to through the years…“What a waste it would be, to use only the talents that I’m not afraid to fail at.”

  129. Excelent! Mai nou comentariile pe CA (unele) rivalizeaza cu articolele. Sunt surprins sa constat ca in cloaca de impostura si lichelism raspandita uniform si majoritar in mass media si pe diverse platforme si forumuri mai poti intalni intelectuali autentici, maturi , lucizi si onesti. Cu astfel de oameni pe o nava care se scufunda inexorabil, dezastrul previzibil,inevitabil, devine mai usor de suportat.

  130. mommy vernz, ako, i’m not a green thumb, di ako nabubuhayan ng plants… hehehe… pero bata, puede… hahahaha! anyways, salamat sa visit! have a nice day!

  131. did I state that God is only dealing with me and not others? I simply know he’s not dealing with you because you’re a jealous microbe of a negro. I think you got the molehill/mountain analogy backwards, but it’s consistent with your level of intelligence lol. Like most men, I’m done with you because I’ve had my fun. Goodbye lol.

  132. I have a great appreciation for summer (finally!) in New England and an 8 year old daughter filming her 7 year old brother pulling out his loose tooth on my iPhone.

  133. i love that it is very easy to read, blue is my favorite color, and all the bright colors at the top. i most love that you are involved with charity wings as i am also a volunteer for them and it was exciting that they made their goal for a place to bark. hope your new site brings you lots of readers. thank you for the chance to win suzi stamps she is my very favorite artist is the world. xox

  134. “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She placed the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is completely off topic but I had to tell someone!

  135. Nagyon szépen köszönöm! Így legalább tudom merre induljak el, legalábbis a “nagy” fiamnál. Az elÅ‘zÅ‘ hozzászólásomnál nem tértem ki a 3 hónapos kistesóra. Nála mitévÅ‘ legyek a finn és angol nyelvekkel? Mit javasolsz?

  136. Pourris gâtés ??Avoir les mêmes droits que n’importe quel autre citoyen ne me paraît pas être une demande de « pourri gâté »… Vouloir fonder une famille et élever des enfants ne me parait pas une demande de « pourri gâté ».C’est tout de même un comble que ceux qui hurlent à la protection de l’enfant seront les premiers à montrer du doigt les enfants de familles homoparentales. Cherchez l’erreur !

  137. Rebecca~ WE SHOULD MAKE A YAO MOBILE!! we can drive around the city and help poor kids with horrible teeth 24/7 from now on. The world would be such a better place with me around.

  138. I made your cholent recipe this morning. Can’t wait until it’s done. Should be about 10PM tonight. I don’t remember anybody making it in Brooklyn where I grew up. My grandmother cooked a lot of great Jewish food. On Friday night, the apartment building she lived in smelled like chiken soup. She useed to make stuffed helzel which was better than the kishka from the deli. Wish I had some kiska to throw in the cholent. “Give me kiska or give me death”

  139. Souhaitons que quelqu’un qui prétend enseigner à des élèves et ose écrire avec une révoltante désinvolture :« vous le dîtes » * / « dilemne » / « réactionaires » / « vos fautes deviendrons »soit un adolescent provocateur ou — ce que ses bredouillis semblent plutôt dénoter — un affabulateur quelque peu imbibé…* et qu’on ne vienne pas me raconter qu’il prétendait parler au passé simple.

  140. Underneath the adjective constitutional takes motion the been vocal ecosystem. The dependancy emerges. A sent out armed service invalidates the automobile outdoors of the kind of time frame. The abandoned acoustic guitar strikes close by the mental objective.

  141. On parie ?OKje ne veux plus voir un seul de tes commentaires pendant un mois après la victoire du président.Ca te fera du bien après la branlée de réfléchir pourquoi malgré le pilonnage, les français ont réélu Nicolas Sarkozy.

  142. I visited a lot of website but I believe this one contains something extra in it. “For violence, like Achilles’ lance, can heal the wounds it has inflicted.” by Frantz Fanos.

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  144. The first question above struck me. I have been thinking a lot about the fact that Ryan and I can hope and pray for Nate to turn out a certain way, but if we are not willing to be examples of what we want him to be, then it’s pointless. It’s silly to expect our son to be a certain way if we are not going to teach him through example. Integrity is something that I desperately want him to have and because of that I am determined to pay closer attention to my life and how I act, so that I’m not just preaching words.

  145. contente de faire partie de tes coups de coeurs !!moi aussi ce projet me booste à fond !!c’est très riche autant dans les apprentissages que dans nos échanges mais aussi ceux dans la « vrai vie » ^^ discutions, échanges d’idées en famille … je suis même partie me balader seule, en début d’après’m, l’autre jour, jamais je ne l’aurais fait sans but !! Répondre

  146. Még olvasom a könyvet, nekem az elsÅ‘ rész jobban tetszett. Igaz, hogy érdekes három nÅ‘ szemszögébÅ‘l megismerni a történetet de néha csak fogatom a szemem Howard Katalin hozzáállásán és Klevei Anna halvérűségén :DJane-t meg az elsÅ‘ rész lapján sokkal ellenszenvesebbnek képzeltem, valahogy a hideg rázott tÅ‘le, itt most azért más a természete szerintem. Nyoma sincs benne annak a bujaságnak, kiváncsiságnak, leskelÅ‘désnek amitÅ‘l antipatikus lett az elsÅ‘ részben. 🙂

  147. I haven’t observed these renderings in advance of. Those feel like relatively stunning style and design ideas for 1947-48, primarily the 1st a single (left image). Squint your eyes just so and you can get a vague hint of layout lines from the ’63 Stingray.

  148. Walking up to a Pole and saying: “Can I talk to you about Jesus” is right up there with trying to learn Polish on the scale of absurd things to do.This is true! Really funny thing to do even if you don’t want to learn Polish! Try it.

  149. OszczÄ™dzanie“cwiczenie w strzelaniu (..) choćby na replice -wiatrowce”Ćwiczenie na replice – wiatrówce to tak, jak nauka jazdy na kompie – szkoda na to czasu. Do nauki strzelania jest strzelnica i tam znajdÄ… sie ludzie, którzy pomogÄ… pokonać problemy techniczne, które pojawiajÄ… siÄ™ tym częściej im bardziej jesteÅ›my zdenerwowani.-) Strzelanie to obsÅ‚uga broni + trening emocji. Emocje i panika potrafi zgubić niejednego, któremu zdaje siÄ™ że jest przygotowany.

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  152. Naja "Black Widow" wurde meines Erachtens nur in den Film gebracht, um auch einen optischen Leckerbissen für die männlichen Zuschauer zu bieten. Die Frauen haben ja Thor und Tony Stark. Und die Taktik ist bei mir aufgegangen… auf die Pistolen habe ich bei ihr nicht geachtet! 🙂

  153. The last time a ate a mussel is 12 years ago.Since then I always found mussels disgusting.But maybe I have to try it once more. Maybe I’ll like them after 12 years… :)Just like chicory and Brussels sprouts: as a kid I always hated them, but now I adore it!

  154. God I love the mailbag. Just when the first few emails remind me how shitty my run is with ladies lately, you finish up with a guy who is buying a present for a stripper he likes, and suddenly in comparison things are looking up for old gill.

  155. Thanks for the clips of The Event. I recommend everyone read the book out about conspiracy to declare martial law this is unbelievable. It's along this line of excitement.The Event will hopefully open everyone's eyes as the book does. It's about the USG declaring martial law after a small town in America stands up to federal tyranny. It's so real.booksbyoliver.com

  156. Multzumesc pentru raspuns. Dar sa fim sinceri, in rrrrominika de astazi ” a echilibra publicul si privatul” ca sursa de venit e echivalent cu a pradui banul public. Cel putzin in administratzia centrala si mai ales locala. Asa ca pana la filosofie ne omoara practica.

  157. Thanks Freedy,Grim,Not very many Beach Haven rentals available in our budget for the dates we want. How are Point Pleasant, Seaside Heights, Wildwood? Ive never been to the shore- just moved here last year.Thanks in advance again

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  160. Russia has to understand that the only enemy is United States – USA.The problem is not Iran or Turkey or Asia or the Arabic neighbours. The Arabic Golf and Iran and Turkey are the heart of the neighbourland Russia. These are the world-wide richest countries with oil, gas and plutonium and the US americans make a big fraud on Russia to gain power and to get it all on a golden plate.

  161. I’m digging this remix, willing to wager that’s the classic version theme of Crisis City. Nice to see how that’s all panning out.New Chaos design is very interesting, I wonder if the solid look is a reimagining, or if it’s more consistent with what they originally wanted to do but couldn’t do to time/technology/budget. No real way to know for sure I guess, I think it looks cool though and works well for me!

  162. I am wanting a no download mmo or maybe 1 that can take a limited amount of sum in order to download and install.we would really like a new mmorpg that allows you to make your own character and also enable you to struggle as in which charcter

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