経営コンサル日誌

NISHIコンサル日誌のバックナンバーブログです。

未分類

「流行りの終わり」を見極める1つの知識。

投稿日:

こんにちは。NISHIです。

全く同じ情報に触れていても、
そこから「1しか得られない人」もいれば、
そこから「10を得られる人」もいます。

同じ景色を見ているはずなのに、
見える世界が全く違う。
この差はどこから来るのでしょう?

経験やバイアスなど、
その違いをもたらす違いには
様々なファクターがあるでしょう。
その中で1つ言えるのは、

「ベースとなる知識の差」

によって見える景色は全く違う、
ということ。

もちろん、
知識や経験が邪魔をすることはあれど、
ないよりもあった方が
判断できることは増えてくる
見える景色が変わるわけですね。

前置きはここまで。
本題に入りましょう。

今からお伝えする知識は、
コンサルティングにおいて基本のキ。

別にコンサルだけの特別な知識でもなく、
使える場面も多いので、
知っておいて損はないかと。

それは【ライフサイクル】の知識。

市場そのものが産声をあげる「導入期」。
市場が拡大成長する「成長期」。
需給バランスが崩れ始める「成熟期」。
淘汰が一通り終了した「衰退期」。

こんな風に、
市場発展の推移と需給バランスに
ついてのメカニズム的なものですが、
これを知っているだけで、

今の市況と自社の位置づけは?
その流行りはいつまで続くのか?
今、注力するポイントはどこか?

などの
「目安をつけること」ができます。

ゆえに、
的外れな手を打つ確率も減るわけです。

で、今日はこの題材を使って、
【簡単な目安のつけ方】を
見ていきましょう。

題材はこれ。

http://grass-ex.jp/Lo30/1641

この題材をつかって、
この市場はいつまで成長するのか?
分岐点となる年度はいつなのか?
といったところの目安をつけてみます。

さて、記事から判断要素を
いくつかピックアップすると、

・初代ケータイマグの発売:1999年
・普及が一気に進んだ:2008年
・大ヒット商品の登場:2012年

という推移を辿ったことがわかります。

これをライフサイクルにあてはめると、
商品とともに市場が産声をあげたのは
1999年で、ここからが導入期。

普及が一気に進んだのは2008年なので、
ここからが成長期。

と、いうことは、
市場誕生の1999年から、
普及前年の2007年までの期間は
「9年間」であることがわかる。

ここがポイントで、
ライフサイクルは、
導入期、
成長期、
成熟期、
衰退期
の4つの時期を辿りますが、

それぞれの時期は同じ長さ
——————————

だとされています。

この「考え方」を知っているだけで、
ライフサイクルの各期間が
「いつまで続くのか」がわかる。

先ほどの題材だと、
導入期:1999年~2007年
成長期:2008年~2014年
成熟期:2015年~2023年
衰退期:2024年~2032年
という見立てが立てられる。

本当は市場規模のデータや、
該当商品の年度別売上伸長率など、
いくつかの指標を組み合わせて見ないと
精度の高い見立てではない。

ただ、「簡単な見立て」は
その場でパッとできます。

なので、
ライフサイクルの知識と
その商品やサービスが、

【いつ】スタートし、
【何年かけて】普及してきたのか。

その2点を捉えておくと、
今後の需要予測が行いやすくなります。

もちろん、絶対ではありませんが、
覚えておいて損はありません。
流行りの終わりも目安がつけられますし。

では。

NISHI

-未分類

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