経営コンサル日誌

NISHIコンサル日誌のバックナンバーブログです。

日記

人間が興味のある「3つのこと」。

投稿日:

こんにちは。NISHIです。

未来を予測する方法、教えます。
そう言われると、
あなたはどう思います?

ほとんどの方は興味ありますよね。
誰しも「この先どうなるのか」は知りたい。
ヒトの興味の中でも普遍的な部類でしょう。

だって、未来を知ることができれば、
それに即してビジネスを組み立てればいい。
誰しもわざわざビジネスで失敗したくないし、
出来ればバッチリ確実に儲けたい。

でもね、どうでしょう。
本当に未来って予測できるんでしょうかね?

確かに、
予測できる未来はあります。

日本では人口が減る。
AIは発達していく。
なくなる職業も増える、などなど。

内容的にざくっとしていて
確度が比較的高い未来については、
「予測できる未来」に分類できるはず。

しかし、
「それら以外」の未来においては

「誰にもわからない」

のではないでしょうか。

そういった意味でこの記事を読んでいると、
ひとり静かに激しく同意。

http://grass-ex.jp/Lo30/1621

Googleで自動運転カーなどの
プロジェクトに取り組む企業「X」を
統括している方ヘのインタビューです。

ちょっとそのくだりを
要約して引用しますね。

==

Q.
今後、5年、10年先、
あなたはどうなると思いますか?

A.
わかりません。
未来は誰にもわからないのです。
予知しようとするのは危険なビジネス。

なので、私がここでやりたいことは、

「可能かもしれない想像上の産物に
さまざまな質問を問いかける
という作業に集中すること」です。

==

ここ、わかりますかね?
最後のくだりです。

未来は誰にもわからない。
故に、未来には様々は可能性がある。

Aという可能性もあれば、
Bという可能性もあり、
Cという可能性もある。

予測できる未来は知っておき、
一方、予測できない未来に関しては、
その可能性や展開を考え続ける事。

未来をなるべく予測して
ご自身のビジネスにつなげるには、
それが「できること」ではないかと。

「じゃあどうすんねん?」

と、決められた答えが大好きな方なら
そう思うかもしれませんので、
予め冒頭に1つヒントを埋め込んでいます。

むかーし、船井幸雄が
「人が興味があるものは3つだ」
という話をしていたのを覚えています。

それは、

健康のこと。
お金のこと。
近い未来のこと。

この3つだと。
私の記憶が確かなら、ですが。

人の興味は様々ですが、
普遍的でかつ強い興味を持つもの、
悩みが深いものとなると、数は少ない。

それが、

健康のこと、
お金のこと、
近い未来のこと、
の3つになるわけです。

これ、実感ありますよね?

書籍1つとっても、
健康法、ダイエット法の本なんて
次から次へと出てきますし、
なくなることもない。

お金もそう。
ネタは尽きませんよね。

で、もう1つ。
近い未来というのがポイントで、
遠い未来は予測もできなければ、
中々実感もできない。
けど、未来は知りたい。
だから、近い未来になる。

毎年年末になると、
ス○マですが来年のヒット商品予測とか、
来年の経済予測とか出てきますからね。

そういったものでなくとも、
この業種がこの先どうなる、
この商品がこの先どうなる、
このノウハウがこの先どうなる、
そんな狭い範囲の見立てでも十分。

つまり、
予測できる未来は知っておき、
人間の普遍的かつ強い興味に基づき、
ビジネスを組み立てていく。

わからない未来を予測するより、
確実な方法かと。

では。

NISHI

-日記

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